出版物

China’s hog and sow inventories and hog price, January 2009 to September 2017

Yongtong Shao, Minghao Li, Dermot J. Hayes, Wendong Zhang, Tao Xiong, Wei Xie. 2020. "China’s Missing Pigs: Correcting China’s Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach。" CARD Series Working Paper. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

Small sample size often limits forecasting tasks such as the prediction of production, yield, and consumption of agricultural products. Machine learning offers an appealing alternative to traditional forecasting methods. In particular, Support Vector Regression has superior forecasting performance in small sample applications. In this article, we introduce Support Vector Regression via an application to China’s hog market. Since 2014, China’s hog inventory data has experienced an abnormal decline that contradicts price and consumption trends. We use Support Vector Regression to predict the true inventory based on the price-inventory relationship before 2014. We show that, in this application with a small sample size, Support Vector Regression out-performs neural networks, random forest, and linear regression. Predicted hog inventory decreased by 3.9% from November 2013 to September 2017, instead of the 25.4% decrease in the reported data.

US exports of key agricultural commodities to Hong Kong, 1989–2019

Xi He and Wendong Zhang. 2020. "Implications of Hong Kong’s Special Status Revocation for Agricultural Trade between the United States, Hong Kong, and Mainland China。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

In 1992, the United States granted Hong Kong status as a customs territory separate from mainland China. On June 29, 2020, however, the US Department of Commerce withdrew that status due to recent tensions between China and the United States. Hong Kong, as the world’s largest re-exporting port, plays a large intermediary role in US-China trade, and the revocation of its special status may provoke China into taking retaliatory economic and/or political actions. He and Zhang examine trends in Hong Kong’s import/export of US agricultural products and how that trade may be affected. They find that the revocation itself is not likely to directly affect US-China agricultural trade prospects much if neither China nor the United States responds with further actions.

Changes in China’s hog inventory, pork imports, live pig price, and pork price and the number ASF outbreaks in China, 8/2018–2/2020

Chen-Ti Chen, Tao Xiong, and Wendong Zhang. 2020. "Large Hog Companies Gain from China’s Ongoing African Swine Fever。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

Since November 2018, China has reduced its hog and sow inventory by almost 32% due to ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever. These reductions—103 million pigs and 8.7 million sows—account for more than one-fifth of the world’s hog inventory, but they may come as a blessing in disguise for large hog companies. Chen, Xiong, and Zhang examine stock returns for China’s 10 largest hog firms and 15 global hog firms and find that China’s hog companies saw positive abnormal stock returns following ASF outbreaks.

Monthly US agricultural and related products exports to China, 2017–2020

Xi He, Dermot J. Hayes, Wendong Zhang. 2020. "China’s Agricultural Imports under the Phase One Deal: Is Success Possible?。" CARD Policy Brief. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

We examine China’s committed agricultural purchases under the phase one trade deal and whether it can fulfill those commitments due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We review China’s actual agricultural imports from the United States and other countries up to the first quarter of 2020 and analyze trade deal obligations China must still meet by the end of 2020. We use prior seasonal patterns and US-China price differentials to predict China’s agricultural imports from the United States in 2020. We examine total agricultural and related products with special focus on corn, soybeans, cotton, sorghum, pork, and beef.

The data show China currently has an enormous market demand for agricultural imports, and, to date, has imported large quantities of pork, cotton, sorghum, and soybeans from the United States. However, China imports an even greater amount of agricultural products from other countries, which, in part, reflects a continued diversification away from US agricultural imports before and during the trade war. We predict China will import $18.60 billion in agricultural products from the United States in 2020, far behind the phase one target of $36.5 billion.

Chinese agriculture and related imports in 2017

Wendong Zhang and Tao Xiong. 2020. "The coronavirus will delay agricultural export surges promised in trade deal with China。"  . The Conversation.

The novel coronavirus has shocked the world’s economies.

The virus has spread to more than 100 countries and many U.S. states. This has rattled global stock markets, plunging the Dow more than 2,000 points on March 9 – the biggest one-day drop since the 2008 Great Recession.

Concerns about potential global economic decline has made implementation of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal uncertain. This deal requires China to purchase an additional US$12.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products in 2020, and $19.5 billion more in 2021.

In our recent research on the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. agriculture, we argue that China has the capability to make these purchases, despite delays and disruptions to supply chains and trade flows caused by the coronavirus. A resilient and recovering Chinese economy means the country can comply with the trade deal and potentially minimize damage to the U.S. economy from an ongoing trade war.

Key US agricultural exports by commodity and country in 2017

Wendong Zhang. 2020. "US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal and US agriculture: A big win for farmers or too good to be true?。" Ag Decision Maker. Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.

Almost two years after the start of the US-China trade war, leaders of both countries signed the highly anticipated Phase 1 trade deal on January 15, 2020. This is especially significant politically and symbolically because this deal represents the first time both countries made moves to actually reduce the tariff rate rather than escalate the situation. In the 88-page deal, China makes historic and bold promises regarding buying US goods and services, pledging to buy an additional $200 billion worth of US products in 2020 and 2021. In particular, China promises to purchase an additional $12.5 and $19.5 billion of US agricultural products in 2020 and 2021, respectively. If realized, these will be the two highest agricultural export watermarks for US-China agricultural trade ever. However, the commodity markets did not show a significant rally as hoped, but instead exhibited noticeable drops. In this article, I will share key details of the Phase 1 deal, focusing on its agricultural provisions, and share my personal opinions and thoughts about the deal and its implications for US and global commodity markets and agricultural exports.

US agricultural trade flows, 1970–present

Chad Hart and Lee Schulz. 2020. "The Phase One Trade Deal: Projections and Implications。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

Chad Hart and Lee Schulz examine the “Phase One” trade deal and determine how it will affect US imports and exports and trade relations with major trading partners. Hart and Schulz find that the USMCA and Japan agreements concentrate on solidifying existing trade flows, rather than significantly expanding trade opportunities. The new trade deals maintain and protect US trading relationships with Canada, Mexico, and Japan, with the prospect for continued, but limited, growth. The China deal, on the other hand, has the potential to radically change global trade flows.

Hart and Schulz are both CARD and Extension economists. Hart is a crop market specialist and Schulz is a livestock industry specialist. Schulz and Hart’s APR articles examine the largest factors currently influencing some of the United States’ largest agricultural industries (Production Projections and Trade Adjustments and Volatile Prices and Profit Margins).

State-level trade war burden with and without 2019 MFP compensation ($B EV) and 2019 MPF payments ($B)

Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang, and John Beghin. 2020. "The State-level Burden of the Trade War: Interactions between the Market Facilitation Program and Tariffs。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

As the Trump Administration works with China’s President Xi to pen a new US-China trade deal, Ed Balistreri, Wendong Zhang, and John Beghin examine the current US-China trade war and its uneven distribution of impacts on US states. The authors find that the distribution of Market Facilitation Payments created “winner” and “loser” states; that is, for some states, the MFP payments totally offset the incidence of tariff retaliation, and for others they don’t. Interestingly, they note that while most of the winner states are “red” states that voted for President Trump in 2016, key “purple” battleground states, such as Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, didn’t receive large enough MFP payments to offset tariff retaliations.

Balistreri and Zhang are both CARD economists that have examined the US-China trade war in depth. They both helped author “The Impact of the 2018 Trade Disruptions on the Iowa Economy,” a CARD series paper that was the first to determine the fiscal impacts the US-China trade war would have on Iowa’s economy.

Live hog prices weekly, August 2018–August 2019

Miguel Carriquiry, Amani Elobeid, Dermot Hayes, and Wendong Zhang. 2019. "Impact of African Swine Fever on US and World Commodity Markets。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

Recent outbreaks of African Swine Fever in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, South Korea, and especially China, have generated interest in how world commodity markets will adjust in response to pig herd losses due to the disease and to panic culling to avoid the negative impacts of the disease. This adjustment is complicated by the retaliatory duties that China has placed on US soybean and pork exports and the duration of temporary exemptions on these tariffs. It is clear that a scarcity of pork will cause a reduction in pork consumption in impacted countries and a switch to alternative proteins. It is also clear that countries (such as the European Union and Brazil) who have direct access to China’s pork and chicken markets will see an increase in exports. What is less clear is the second-round impact of these adjustments. Will the United States ship more pork to markets vacated by the European Union and Brazil as these countries pursue lucrative markets in China? What is the net impact on US and world soybean and corn exports and prices? What would be the implications for the United States if China removes retaliatory duties?

Beef (top) and pork (bottom) export value (left) and NRCA index (right)

John M. Crespi and Chen-Ti Chen. 2019. "Global Competition Made 2018 a Bad Time to Start a Trade War。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

The United States is one of the largest players in the international agricultural market. With the continued growth of its agricultural output, the US agricultural sector has relied heavily on export markets to maintain its competitiveness and profitability. In fact, projections show the United States will export $137 billion in agricultural commodities in 2020. However, the 2018 trade disruptions with Canada and Mexico that led to a renegotiated, but still unratified NAFTA-like treaty (the USMCA) and the presently unresolved trade dispute between the United States and China have adversely impacted US agricultural exports. Of concern is how such disruptions might affect the competitive structure of markets. Today, Iowa farmers are concerned about the long-run implications of the trade disruptions to exports of major importance, especially beef, corn, pork, and soybeans. In this article, we discuss a metric of the historical export performance of these commodities from 1980 to 2018 and show that the trade disruptions occur at a time when the United States is in a particularly precarious position. At the outset of the trade disruptions in 2018, Iowa farmers faced the most competitive markets they had ever faced for these commodities. The longer the disruptions continue, the harder it will be to regain market share in the future.

article cover page image

Shuyang Qu, Wendong Zhang, Minghao Li, Lulu Rodriguez, Guang Han, Erin Cork, James M Gbeda. 2019. "Midwest Crop Farmers’ Perceptions of the U.S.-China Trade War。" CARD Policy Brief. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

 

US revenue changes (% and $B) by sector (top 10 winners and losers)

Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang. 2019. "The U.S.-China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis。" CARD Series Working Paper. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

 

Figure 4. China’s imports from the U.S. compared to the rest of the world (ROW), 1996-2019

Tao Xiong and Wendong Zhang. 2019. "Who benefits most from China’s growing import demand due to African Swine Fever?。" Ag Decision Maker. Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.

 

China’s soybean production, imports, stocks, and China’s prices and world prices

Wenting Wang & Longbao Wei. 2019. "Impacts of Agricultural Price Support Policies on Price Variability and Welfare: Evidence from China’s Soybean Market。" CARD Series Working Paper. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

 

cover page of MDPI article

Pingping Wang, Wendong Zhang, Minghao Li and Yijun Han. 2019. "化肥教育可以提高化肥使用效率吗?来自中国小麦生产的例子。" Sustainability 2019, 11(2), 543; doi:10.3390/su11020543. MDPI.

 

Monthly changes in China’s hog inventory

Minghao Li, Tao Xiong, Yongjie Ji, Dermot Hayes, and Wendong Zhang. 2019. "非洲猪瘟近况更新。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

 

cover page of Ag Decision Maker

Wendong Zhang. 2019. "关于中国你需要知道的七件事。" Ag Decision Maker. Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.

2018 年可能见证了人类历史上最大规模的贸易战。到目前为止,美国对价值2500亿美元的中国进口产品增加了关税。中国对价值1100亿美元的美国进口产品增加了关税,其中包含大豆,猪肉,燃料乙醇等主要农产品。

US revenue changes (% and $B) by sector (top 10 winners and losers)

Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang. 2018. "对2018年贸易战的一般均衡分析。" CARD Series Working Paper. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

这篇论文介绍一个2018年贸易战引起的关税增长的数据库,并用经典的GTAPinGAMS 模型和GTAP version 9 数据来量化贸易战的影响。我们发现在完全竞争的Armington模型中贸易战对总体的福利作用较小,对贸易流向和行业产出的影响比较大。

Locations of ASF outbreaks from 08/02/2018 to 10/30/2018

Yongtong Shao, Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang, Yongjie Ji, and Dermot Hayes. 2018. "世界养猪第一大国陷入非洲猪瘟危机。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

在受到美中和美国-墨西哥贸易战的冲击以后,美国的猪肉生产商正密切的关注中国和其他国家非洲猪瘟疫情的发展。中国的第一例非洲猪瘟2018年8月2号在沈阳发生。根据我们掌握的信息,截至2018年10月末全国已发生45起非洲猪瘟,5439头生猪染病,3841头生猪死亡。

Shifts in regional agricultural trade flows, 1995 and 2017

Edward J. Balistreri, Chad E. Hart, Dermot J. Hayes, Minghao Li, Lee Schulz, David A. Swenson, Wendong Zhang, John M. Crespi. 2018. "2018贸易战对爱荷华经济的影响。" CARD Policy Brief. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

在过去的两年中,美国贸易政策急剧变化并产生了几起贸易争端。从正在进行的北美自贸协定谈判的不确定性到中美之间的几轮谈判(包括本文写作过程中9月18号的谈判),美国的生产和消费者都在对变化中的贸易格局和更高的贸易成本进行调整。由于国际贸易对于爱荷华经济的重要性,我们对目前的贸易政策对爱荷华经济的影响进行了分析。

预测中国从美国进口农产品的潜力

Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang, Dermot J. Hayes. 2018. "中国农业进口的潜力。" CARD Policy Brief. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

在正在进行的中美贸易谈判中,中国表达了降低贸易壁垒,增加从美国进口农产品的意愿。在这篇政策简报中,我们总结中国对美国农产品现存的关税及非关税贸易壁垒,并分析降低这些壁垒以后可能带来的进口增长。 我们发现中国对美国的主要农产品设有较高的贸易壁垒,并预测消除这些贸易壁垒后美国对中国农产品出口将显著增加。比如,在“中等增长”设置下,消除贸易壁垒可以使中国从美国猪肉进口增加89亿美元。

Summary of two Chinese retaliations on U.S. agricultural exports

Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang, and Chad E. Hart. 2018. "从中国过去贸易报复中可以学到什么?" CARD Policy Brief. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

美国每年向中国出口241亿美元农产品,美中农业贸易的重要性不容小视。因此,近期美中贸易摩擦让美国农业界非常紧张,害怕农产品会成为中国贸易报复的目标。就在上周,中国宣布,由于美国对中国钢材和铝材征收关税,中国可能对美国乙醇征收15%的关税,对猪肉征收25%关税。本文试图通过分析中国过去的贸易报复总结规律,预测中国下一步的动向。我们认为中国在过去选择贸易报复目标的过程中选择针对贸易额对等,可替换,并对美方造成重大经济和政治损失的产品。在这一轮的报复中中国没有选择大豆,因为其贸易额远大于钢铁和铝,不符合对等原则。但是随着贸易摩擦进一步升级,大豆可能会被卷入贸易战之中。

Agricultural land transfer to different types of entities

Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang, and Dermot Hayes. 2018. "中国近期农村的农村土地改革可以解决农地困局吗?" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

中国面临关于土地问题的双重挑战:1. 如何保护稀缺土地资源的数量和质量?2. 如何解决土地细碎化,增加农业生产力?中国近期进行的土地改革旨在解决这两方面的问题。这些改革对中国甚至世界将有深远意义。

Crop land per farmer in China in acres

Wendong Zhang and Minghao Li. 2018. "透过爱荷华州看中国农业经济。" Ag Decision Maker. Extension and Outreach, Iowa State University.

美国有四分之一的大豆出口中国,所以中国在美国农业贸易中的地位不容小视。因为爱荷华州的前州长 Terry Branstad 现任美国驻华大使,中美农业贸易对爱荷华州更是尤其重要。本文以爱荷华州为量尺介绍中国农业经济的情况。

China’s corn production and consumption, history and projections

Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang, Dermot Hayes, Riley Arthur, Yantao Yang, and Xiudong Wang. 2017. "中国推广使用燃料乙醇的计划及其对国际市场的潜在影响。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

中国最近公布了于2020年以前在全国范围内推广E10燃料乙醇 (汽油混合10%乙醇) 的计划。 在此计划在实行以后全国燃料乙醇使用量将提高4倍。即使中国可以在短时间内建成足够的冶炼厂,长期看来原材料(主要以玉米为主)的供给可能会出现短缺,为乙醇和玉米出口国提供机会。

China and US corn future prices 2005–2016

Qianrong Wu and Wendong Zhang. 2016. "中国玉米新政策。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

在2016年以前,中国的玉米价格支持政策把玉米价格维持在美国国内价格的2~3倍之间。价格支持政策造成了巨大的财政成本,并使玉米库存创下新高。2016年,中国将价格支持改革为生产者补贴,和播种面积挂钩。这项改革可能表明中国在有意削弱玉米的战略地位,并从自给自足逐步转向参与国际市场。

The growth in the value of U.S. agricultural exports to China

Chad Hart and Lee Shulz. 2015. "中国对美国农业市场的重要性。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

最近几周关于中国的新闻不断,从人民币贬值,到股票市场波动,到最近的农产品采购协议。这些新闻大都关注中国对美国经济的重要性,以及中国经济发展对美国经济的影响。对于农业,中国市场的重要性在过去的十年内显著增长,然而其影响集中在特定的农业产业中。

Summary statistics of the agricultural sector in China and the United States

Wendong Zhang. 2015. "中美农业之同异。" Agricultural Policy Review. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

中国和美国的农业都以市场为主体,并加以强力的政策干预。两国农业在环保,科技等方面面临共同的机遇和挑战,又在自然禀赋,政策环境,和市场条件上存在巨大差异。张文栋博士在这篇报告中就中美农业的异同提出见解。