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Approaches to Predictive Modeling: Building a Framework for Prioritizing Opportunities to Reduce Food Safety Risk

Workshop held at Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa, June 15 and 16, 2004

Iowa State University and the University of California-Davis held an invited workshop at Iowa State University to further develop an integrated approach to analyzing hazards and prioritizing opportunities for reducing food safety risk in the US food safety system. This workshop focused on identifying and critiquing alternative approaches to predictive modeling and the integration of risk assessment and risk-control processes across an integrative system. The work builds on a risk ranking model completed to date and complements on-going work of the Food Safety Research Consortium (FSRC). The workshop was co-sponsored by USDA/CSREES Integrated Food Safety Initiative and Iowa State University's Institute for Food Safety and Security and the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development.


Session 1: The Needs of Regulators and the Policy Process
Session Chair: Michael Taylor, Resources for the Future

How do agencies address food safety priority setting? What drives the priority setting? What might future directions be? What vision do the agencies have for improvements? What are the priorities for data?

Robert Buchanan Food and Drug Administration FDA Perspective
Arthur Liang Centers for Disease Control, Food Safety Office CDC Perspective
Philip Derfler Food Safety and Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture FSIS Perspective


Session 2: Taking a System-wide Approach
Session Chair: Jerry Gillespie, University of California-Davis

What is known about where risk enters the food supply? What is known about how risk is amplified or reduced? Conceptually, what data should be considered? What data do we have? What are the key data gaps?

Arie Havelaar RIVM, Netherlands A Systems Perspective on Managing Risk
Linda Harris University of California-Davis The Food System--Putting the "Systems" Approach in Context: Fruits and Vegetables
Liz Wagstrom National Pork Board The Food System--Putting the "Systems" Approach in Context: Animal and Meat Products


Session 3: Overview of Approaches to Modeling in a Global Context
Session Chair: James Dickson, Iowa State University

Glenn Morris University of Maryland School of Medicine A Three-Tiered Approach: Food Attribution, Commodity Level, and Level of Food Supply Chain
Jeffrey Wolt Iowa State University Data and Modeling Requirements for Policy
Birgitte Borck Danish Zoonosis Center The Danish Approach for Associating Food Groups with Cases of Human Foodborne Illness
Michael Doyle University of Georgia Issues with Respect to Interventions
Julie Caswell University of Massachusetts Economic Context


Session 4: Considering Different Approaches to Risk Modeling
Session Chair: Glenn Morris, University of Maryland

David Hartley University of Maryland School of Medicine "Toy Models" / Descriptive Models
David Kendall RTI The RTI Food Handling Practices Model
Robert Buchanan Food and Drug Administration Risk Assessments
John Galland University of California-Davis UC-Davis Model


Session 5: Breakout Sessions Breakout sessions focused on feasibility, relevant (best) models and methodologies to identify and assess risks, data requirements and availability from existing data collection systems.
  1. Animal/Meat products (convener - James Dickson)
  2. Fruits and Vegetables (convener - Jerry Gillespie)