Expert Elicitation for Foodborne Illness Attribution

Context for the study

Approaches to Expert Elicitation

Survey Tasks

Survey Administration

Respondents Characteristics

Survey Instrument

Information Sources

Expertise with Food
 (1 = low, 5 = high)

Expertise with Pathogen
(1 = low, 5 = high)

Degree of Consensus varies by  Pathogen

Comparison to Outbreak Data

Comparison to Outbreak Data

Attribution Categories:  Water/Other

The Water/Produce Pattern

Respondents’ Confidence in Best Estimate

Explaining Respondents’ Confidence

Summary Statistics

Range Regression Models

Individuals, Foods, Pathogens
(significant coefficients)

Experience and Training

Institutional Affiliation

Conclusions