Risk-based
optimization of the
Danish pork Salmonella program
The Danish Salmonella
Surveillance Program - Overview
Correlation between
salmonella-serology and culture
The Serological Surveillance of Slaughter pig Herds
The Serological Surveillance
of
Slaughter pig Herds
The Serological Surveillance
of
Slaughterpig Herds
Herd prevalence – Slaughterpigs
Is the program
working??
In the absence of information, PERCEPTION becomes reality!
Pig production module – Initial values
Sources of stochasticity (variability)
Reduction due to on-farm and slaughter improvements
What if had on-farm program only
assuming no improvement in slaughter (1995)?
On-farm only with current (2003) slaughter standards
Where do we go from
here?
Future (2004-2013)
Annual human cases predicted
with various slaughterhouse
control options
Continue slaughter
improvement
all else equal
Effect of on-farm program
(hypothetical intervention)
on annual number of human cases
Reduce all herds to <25% ave. annual seroprevalence